United Kingdom general election, 2015 - Opinion polling - Predictions one month before the vote

Seat predictions draw from nationwide polling, polling in the constituent nations of Britain and may additionally incorporate constituency level polling, particularly the Ashcroft polls. Approaches may or may not use uniform national swing (UNS). Approaches may just use current polling, i.e. a "nowcast" (e.g. Electoral Calculus, May2015.com and The Guardian), or add in a predictive element about how polling shifts based on historical data (e.g. ElectionForecast and Elections Etc.).[132] An alternative approach is to use the wisdom of the crowd and base a prediction on betting activity: the Sporting Index column below covers bets on the number of seats each party will win with the midpoint between asking and selling price, while FirstPastThePost.net aggregates the betting predictions in each individual constituency. Some predictions cover Northern Ireland, with its distinct political culture, while others do not. Parties are sorted by current number of seats in the House of Commons:

Reference 1: Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, DUP, SNP, UKIP, SDLP, Plaid Cymru, Greens, Other and Overall result (probability).

Reference 2: ElectionForecast[132] (Newsnight Index) as of 9 April 2015, Electoral Calculus[133] as of 12 April 2015, Elections Etc[134] as of 3 April 2015, The Guardian[135] as of 12 April 2015, May2015.com[136] as of 12 April 2015, Sporting Index[137] as of 12 April 2015 and First Past the Post[138] as of 12 April 2015.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015